Growth Engine MONKEY MAKE FIRE
Lunera Hormone Balance · built 2026-06-10 · NCPA £43.38 (Triple Whale live, 2026-05-11 → 2026-06-09)
· sub take rate 64.2%
Scorecard
NCPA (CAC)
£43.38
win <£45 · re-examine >£50
Day-1 ROAS
1.50×
£64.99 rev / £43.38 CAC (Menard runs 0.56×)
60-day payback
79%
£34.10 recovered (his slide: 102%)
90-day payback
115%
£49.97 recovered at first rebill
Max CAC @ 90-day
£49.97
headroom £+6.59 vs NCPA (was £42.18)
Year-1 LTV (subscriber)
£74.08
contribution, incl M12 rebill (was £60.30)
Year-1 LTV:CAC (sub)
1.71×
target >2.5× · blended 1.42×
Year-3 LTV:CAC (est)
2.19×
£95.13 lifetime value (his slide: 3.6×)
Per-subscriber economics on NEW pricing (£64.99/quarter sub). Contribution = revenue − VAT − COGS − ship/fulfil − fees − returns.
Retention: weighted 90D cohorts ≥100 subs; M9/M12 extrapolated (dashed).
Cash engine — can we float the payback?
Day-0 cash recovery
83%
of every £1 of ad spend is back as contribution same-day
Monthly float (current spend)
£14,881
unrecovered until rebills land (day 90)
Cash on hand
£30,000
2.0 months of float · net-60 terms release ~£51,500
Scale rule
£0.50 / £1
each +£1/mo of NEW spend needs ~£0.50 cash until day 90 · VAT due 2026-09-07
Monthly Cohort Waterfall PER SUBSCRIBER, NET OF CAC
| Month | Retention | Revenue | Contribution | Cumulative P&L | Status |
|---|
| Month 0 | 100% | £64.99 | £34.10 | £-9.28 | Acquisition |
| Month 1 | 86% | — | — | £-9.28 | Building |
| Month 2 | 78% | — | — | £-9.28 | Building |
| Month 3 | 47% | £30.23 | £15.87 | £+6.59 | ⚡ Day-90 Payback |
| Month 4 | 42% | — | — | £+6.59 | Profit building |
| Month 5 | 38% | — | — | £+6.59 | Profit building |
| Month 6 | 29% | £18.83 | £9.88 | £+16.47 | ✅ Compounding |
| Month 7 | 25% | — | — | £+16.47 | Profit building |
| Month 8 | 20% | — | — | £+16.47 | Profit building |
| Month 9 | 23% | £15.06 | £7.90 | £+24.37 | ✅ Compounding |
| Month 10 | — | — | — | £+24.37 | Profit building |
| Month 11 | — | — | — | £+24.37 | Profit building |
| Month 12 | 19% | £12.05 | £6.32 | £+30.70 | Year 1: 1.71× LTV:CAC |
Cumulative P&L per subscriber (net of £43.38 CAC)
Subscriber survival — 90-day supply
Cancellations — Loop live 4856 cancelled · 5654 active · fetched 2026-06-10
| Reason | # | % |
|---|
| I'm not seeing any results | 1536 | 31.6% |
| Too expensive to continue | 1490 | 30.7% |
| I have too much still | 1062 | 21.9% |
| Cancelled by API | 487 | 10.0% |
| I'm not seeing results with Hormone Balance | 197 | 4.1% |
| asked to cancel | 8 | 0.2% |
| customer asked to cancel | 6 | 0.1% |
| didn't want to sub | 6 | 0.1% |
| didn't know she subbed | 4 | 0.1% |
| No longer interested | 4 | 0.1% |
| N/A | 4 | 0.1% |
| Customer asked to cancel. | 3 | 0.1% |
| Orders completed at cancel | # | % |
|---|
| 1 | 3733 | 76.9% |
| 2 | 1008 | 20.8% |
| 3 | 102 | 2.1% |
| 4 | 7 | 0.1% |
| 5 | 5 | 0.1% |
| 7 | 1 | 0.0% |
| Time to cancel | # | % |
|---|
| 0d | 495 | 10.2% |
| 1-7d | 360 | 7.4% |
| 8-30d | 539 | 11.1% |
| 31-90d | 2363 | 48.7% |
| 91-180d | 970 | 20.0% |
| 180d+ | 129 | 2.7% |
The M3 cliff: 78% active at month 2 → 47% pay rebill 1. Fix in flight: gift swap + Loop cancel window + pre-rebill email.
Data freshness: cohorts exported 2026-06-10 (Shopify) · Loop API: awaiting key · Triple Whale API: awaiting key.
Refresh: re-export CSVs to data/cohorts/, update ncpa in model/config.json, run python3 model/build_dashboard.py.